Managing Political Risk in the Oil & Gas Sector

Introduction:

The oil and gas sector faces a range of political risks at all stages of the business cycle. Strategic management of these risks can mean the difference between success and failure of a project and can make a material difference to the value realized. A McKinsey study suggested that up to 70% of earnings can be at risk from these types of risks.

This PetroKnowledge training course on Managing Political Risk for the Oil & Gas Sector will provide participants with a thorough understanding of the assessment and management of political risk in the oil and gas sector. The course will provide tools to identify and analyze political risks and the specific implications for your project or business. It will also provide strategies and tactics for managing political risk and creating win-win solutions.

Targeted Groups:

• Country Managers
• Asset Managers
• Project Managers
• Operations Managers
• New Venture Managers
• Business Development Managers
• Finance and Tax Professionals
• Lawyers
• Risk Managers
• Government Relations Managers
• Political Risk Analysts
• Corporate Affairs Managers
• External Relations Managers
• Corporate Social Responsibility Managers
• Public Relations Professionals

Course Objectives:

At the end of this course the participants will be able to:

• Explore recent trends and developments in sources of Political Risk
• Analyze and mitigate political risks facing your business;
• Develop and implement a fit for purpose strategy to manage political risk to support your business needs
• Know a wide range of tools and tactics to use to improve your ability to manage political risks in a wide variety of situations
• Get the latest ideas and concepts to mitigate political risk
• Understand how to create synergies with other functions within their organization and with external parties

Targeted Competencies:

• Sources of Political Risk
• The role of different political actors
• Assessment strategies and tools
• Approaches to political risk management
• Successful Political Risk management strategies and tactics
• Use of scenarios to anticipate and manage Political Risk
• Collaboration with other functions to manage Political Risk

Course Content:
Unit 1: Introduction to Political Risk:

• What is political risk?
• Introduction and definitions
• Political risk and ethics
• Ethics and principles
• Transparency and accountability
• Human rights
• Managing relationships with political actors
• Codes of conduct, standards, and guidelines

Unit 2: Political Risk: Threats and Opportunities:

• Global trends and developments
• Geopolitics
• Climate change
• Technology
• Oil and gas industry outlook
• Creating opportunities out of Political Risk

Unit 3: Sources of Political Risk:

• Sources of Political Risk
• Government policy
• Conflict
• Political change and transition
• Social divides
• Ethnic and minority groups
• Populism
• Economic factors
• Black Swan events

Unit 4: Sources of Information and Analysis:

• Government
• Political actors
• Media and publications
• Academics
• Civil society
• Consultancies
• Human sources

Unit 5: Assessing Political Risk:

• Assessment strategies and tools
• Making connections
• Working with incomplete information
• The 360-degree view
• Use of experts
• Introducing scenarios

Unit 6: Red Flags and Showstoppers:

• Identifying red flags
• Assessment
• Monitoring

Unit 7: Capturing and Communicating Political Risk:

• Reports
• Risk matrices
• Metrics
• Presenting to leadership teams

Unit 8: Managing Political Risk:

• Political risk management strategies
• What can you control, influence, or ignore?
• Choosing the right approach
• Monitoring and feedback

Unit 9: Building Political Capital:

• Front end loading of goodwill
• Alignment with national priorities
• Proactive engagement
• Proactive management of political risk
• Early warning of policy changes
• Consultation and engagement
• Proactive and collaborative approaches
• Measuring success
• Organization
• Skills and expertise
• Team structure
• Embedded teams
• Engaging the leadership team

Unit 10: Building Scenarios:

• What is a scenario?
• Purpose of scenarios
• Defining the scope
• Prediction VS Anticipation
• Brainstorming
• Setting out the scenarios
• Worst and best case
• The status quo
• Likelihood VS Impact
• How many scenarios?

Unit 11: Using Scenarios:

• Managing instability
• Contingency planning
• Identifying opportunities
• High impact, low probability events